TY - JOUR T1 - Southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) species distribution models project a large range shift and contraction due to regional climatic changes JF - Forest Ecology and Managment Y1 - 2018 A1 - Andrew J. Shirk A1 - Samuel A. Cushman A1 - Kristen M. Waring A1 - Christian A. Wehenkel A1 - Alejandro Leal-Sáenz A1 - Chris Toney A1 - Carlos A. Lopez-Sanchez KW - climate change KW - Multi-scale KW - Pinus strobiformis KW - Range shift KW - Southwestern white pine KW - Species distribution model AB -

Southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis; SWWP) is a conifer species that occurs at mid to high elevations in
the mountains of Arizona, New Mexico, and northern Mexico. A key component of mixed conifer forests in the
region, SWWP is an important species for wildlife and biodiversity. The dual threats of the non-native fungal
pathogen that causes white pine blister rust (WPBR) and a warmer, drier projected future climate have created
an uncertain future for SWWP. In this study, we used a novel multi-scale optimization approach including an
ensemble of four species distribution modeling methods to explore the relationship between SWWP occurrence
and environmental variables based on climate, soil, and topography. Spatial projections of these models reflecting
the present climate provide an improved range map for this species that can be used to guide field data
collection and monitoring of WPBR outbreaks. Future projections based on two emissions scenarios and an
ensemble of 15 general circulation models project a large range shift and range contraction by 2080. Changes in
the future distribution were particularly extreme under the higher emissions scenario, with a more than 1000 km
northerly shift in the mean latitude and 500m increase in the mean elevation of the species’ suitable habitat.
This coincided with a range contraction of over 60% and a significant increase in habitat fragmentation. The
ability of SWWP to realize its projected future range will depend on colonization at the leading edge of the range
shift, including dispersal dynamics, resistance to WPBR, competition with other species, and genetic adaptations
to local climate. Our results provide information that can be used to guide monitoring efforts and inform conservation
planning for this keystone species.

VL - 411:176-186 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.01.025 ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Soil-mediated local adaptation alters seedling survival and performance . JF - Plant and Soil Y1 - 2012 A1 - Smith,DS A1 - Schweitzer,JA A1 - Turk,P A1 - JK Bailey A1 - Hart,SC A1 - SM Shuster A1 - TG Whitham VL - 352 N1 - [Original String]:Smith DS, Schweitzer JA, Turk P, Bailey JK, Hart SC, Shuster SM, Whitham TG. 2012. Soil-mediated local adaptation alters seedling survival and performance . Plant and Soil 352: 243-251. ER - TY - JOUR T1 - Phenotypic variation in nurse traits and community feedbacks define an alpine community. JF - Ecology letters Y1 - 2011 A1 - Michalet,Richard A1 - Xiao,Sa A1 - Touzard,Blaise A1 - David S Smith A1 - Cavieres,Lohengrin A A1 - Callaway,Ragan M A1 - Whitham,Thomas G KW - arizona KW - Ecosystem KW - Genotype KW - Geum KW - Models, Biological KW - Phenotype KW - Plant Leaves KW - Plant Roots KW - Plant Stems KW - Population Dynamics KW - Selection, Genetic AB -

Much is known about facilitation, but virtually nothing about the underlying genetic and evolutionary consequences of this important interaction. We assessed the potential of phenotypic differences in facilitative effects of a foundation species to determine the composition of an Alpine community in Arizona. Two phenotypes of Geum rossii occur along a gradient of disturbance, with 'tight' competitive cushions in stable conditions and 'loose' facilitative cushions in disturbed conditions. A common-garden study suggested that field-based traits may have a genetic basis. Field experiments showed that the reproductive fitness of G. rossii cushions decreased with increasing facilitation. Finally, using a dual-lattice model we showed that including the cost and benefit of facilitation may contribute to the co-occurrence of genotypes with contrasting facilitative effects. Our results indicate that changes in community composition due to phenotypic differences in facilitative effects of a foundation species may in turn affect selective pressures on the foundation species.

VL - 14 SN - 1461-023X UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?Db=pubmed&DbFrom=pubmed&Cmd=Link&LinkName=pubmed_pubmed&LinkReadableName=Related%20Articles&IdsFromResult=21366815&ordinalpos=3&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSumhttp://www.ncbi. IS - 5 ER - TY - JOUR T1 - From genes to geography: a genetic similarity rule for arthropod community structure at multiple geographic scales. JF - Molecular ecology Y1 - 2006 A1 - RK Bangert A1 - Allan,G J A1 - Turek,R J A1 - Wimp,G M A1 - Meneses,N A1 - Martinsen,G D A1 - Keim,P A1 - Whitham,T G KW - Animals KW - Arthropods KW - biodiversity KW - Genetic Variation KW - Genetics, Population KW - Models, Genetic KW - Populus KW - Rivers KW - Southwestern United States AB -

We tested the hypothesis that leaf modifying arthropod communities are correlated with cottonwood host plant genetic variation from local to regional scales. Although recent studies found that host plant genetic composition can structure local dependent herbivore communities, the abiotic environment is a stronger factor than the genetic effect at increasingly larger spatial scales. In contrast to these studies we found that dependent arthropod community structure is correlated with both the cross type composition of cottonwoods and individual genotypes within local rivers up to the regional scale of 720,000 km(2) (Four Corner States region in the southwestern USA). Across this geographical extent comprising two naturally hybridizing cottonwood systems, the arthropod community follows a simple genetic similarity rule: genetically similar trees support more similar arthropod communities than trees that are genetically dissimilar. This relationship can be quantified with or without genetic data in Populus.

VL - 15 SN - 0962-1083 UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?Db=pubmed&DbFrom=pubmed&Cmd=Link&LinkName=pubmed_pubmed&LinkReadableName=Related%20Articles&IdsFromResult=17054514&ordinalpos=3&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSumhttp://www.ncbi. IS - 13 ER -