TY - JOUR T1 - Southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) species distribution models project a large range shift and contraction due to regional climatic changes JF - Forest Ecology and Managment Y1 - 2018 A1 - Andrew J. Shirk A1 - Samuel A. Cushman A1 - Kristen M. Waring A1 - Christian A. Wehenkel A1 - Alejandro Leal-Sáenz A1 - Chris Toney A1 - Carlos A. Lopez-Sanchez KW - climate change KW - Multi-scale KW - Pinus strobiformis KW - Range shift KW - Southwestern white pine KW - Species distribution model AB -

Southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis; SWWP) is a conifer species that occurs at mid to high elevations in
the mountains of Arizona, New Mexico, and northern Mexico. A key component of mixed conifer forests in the
region, SWWP is an important species for wildlife and biodiversity. The dual threats of the non-native fungal
pathogen that causes white pine blister rust (WPBR) and a warmer, drier projected future climate have created
an uncertain future for SWWP. In this study, we used a novel multi-scale optimization approach including an
ensemble of four species distribution modeling methods to explore the relationship between SWWP occurrence
and environmental variables based on climate, soil, and topography. Spatial projections of these models reflecting
the present climate provide an improved range map for this species that can be used to guide field data
collection and monitoring of WPBR outbreaks. Future projections based on two emissions scenarios and an
ensemble of 15 general circulation models project a large range shift and range contraction by 2080. Changes in
the future distribution were particularly extreme under the higher emissions scenario, with a more than 1000 km
northerly shift in the mean latitude and 500m increase in the mean elevation of the species’ suitable habitat.
This coincided with a range contraction of over 60% and a significant increase in habitat fragmentation. The
ability of SWWP to realize its projected future range will depend on colonization at the leading edge of the range
shift, including dispersal dynamics, resistance to WPBR, competition with other species, and genetic adaptations
to local climate. Our results provide information that can be used to guide monitoring efforts and inform conservation
planning for this keystone species.

VL - 411:176-186 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.01.025 ER -